2010 Grant and Donation Program

Community Futures Rural Development Fund

Draft Wiarton Growth Study

GROWTH MANAGEMENT REPORT
Wiarton South Settlement Area

Comprehensive Review of Land Use
Designations in the Town of Wiarton

Prepared for:
The Municipality of South Bruce Peninsula
P.O. Box 310
315 George St.
Wiarton, ON N0H 2T0

Prepared by:
Cuesta Planning Consultants Inc.
978 First Avenue West
Owen Sound, ON N4K 4K5
Tel: 519-372-9790
Fax: 519-372-9953
cuesta@cuestaplanning.com
www.cuestaplanning.com

First Draft Submitted: April 29, 2009
Complete Draft Report: September 9, 2009
Comprehensive Review of Land Use
Designations in Wiarton 1

TABLE OF CONTENTS
1.0 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................. 3
1.1 PURPOSE OF STUDY ..........................................................................................................................................3
1.2 STUDY CONTEXT .............................................................................................................................................3
2.0 POLICY IMPLICATIONS FOR COMPREHENSIVE REVIEW.............................. 5
2.1 PROVINCIAL POLICY STATEMENT ....................................................................................................................5
2.2 COUNTY OF BRUCE OFFICIAL PLAN POLICIES ..................................................................................................6
2.3 TOWN OF SOUTH BRUCE PENINSULA OFFICIAL PLAN ......................................................................................7
3.0 STUDY PROCESS SUMMARY ..................................................................................... 8
4.0 METHODOLOGY ........................................................................................................... 9
5.0 GROWTH FORECASTS............................................................................................... 10
5.1 POPULATION PROJECTION .....................................................................................................................10
5.1.1 Linear Population Projection .................................................................................................11
5.1.2 Deduction Projection Method...............................................................................................12
5.1.3 Dwelling Occupancy Projection Method..............................................................................13
5.2 HOUSING PROJECTIONS ..........................................................................................................................14
5.2.1 Growth Allocation to Settlement Areas.................................................................................16
5.2.2 Projected Residential Land Demand .....................................................................................17
5.2.3 Residential Land Supply within the Town of Wiarton ..........................................................19
5.2.4 Residential Land Required to Accommodate Projected Growth ...........................................20
5.3 EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS ................................................................................................................22
5.3.1 Employment Land Demand...................................................................................................23
5.3.2 Employment Land Designations in Wiarton .........................................................................25
5.3.3 Supply of Vacant Employment Lands...................................................................................26
5.4 PROJECTED GROWTH SUMMARY .........................................................................................................27
Residential Development....................................................................................................................27
Employment Lands.............................................................................................................................27
6.0 INFRASTRUCTURE ..................................................................................................... 28
6.1 WIARTON WATER TREATMENT AND DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM.........................................................................28
6.2 WIARTON SEWAGE SYSTEM ...........................................................................................................................28
6.3 TRANSPORTATION ..........................................................................................................................................29
6.4 STORMWATER MANAGEMENT........................................................................................................................30
6.5 PUBLIC SERVICE FACILITIES ..........................................................................................................................30
7.0 EXISTING POLICY DIRECTION AND CONSIDERATIONS ............................... 31
7.1 PROVINCIAL INTERESTS .................................................................................................................................31
7.2 LOCAL OFFICIAL PLAN POLICIES ...................................................................................................................31
Residential ..........................................................................................................................................32
Highway Commercial.........................................................................................................................33
8.0 GROWTH ALLOCATION OPTIONS ........................................................................ 34
8.1 ACCOMMODATING PROJECTED RESIDENTIAL GROWTH .................................................................................34
8.2 ACCOMMODATING PROJECTED EMPLOYMENT ...............................................................................................35
9.0 PRELIMINARY GROWTH STRATEGY .................................................................. 36
10.0 POLICY RECOMMENDATION ................................................................................. 38
11.3.9.1 WIARTON SOUTH SPECIAL POLICY AREA................................................................................38
Comprehensive Review of Land Use
Designations in Wiarton 2

LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES

5.1.1 LINEAR POPULATION PROJECTION FOR SOUTH BRUCE PENINSULA............................11
5.1.2 TOWN OF SOUTH BRUCE PENINSULA POPULATION PROJECTIONS 2009-2029...............12
5.1.3 MUNICIPAL BUILDING PERMIT ACTIVITY.....................................................................13
5.1.4 GROWTH SCENARIOS ­ SUMMARY........................................................................... 14
5.2.1 2006 DWELLING DEMAND PROPENSITIES BY AGE OF ................................................ 15
PRIMARY HOUSEHOLD MAINTAINER
5.2.2 HOUSING DEMAND PROJECTION SUMMARY...............................................................15
5.2.3 PROJECTED NUMBER OF ADDITIONAL DWELLING UNITS ............................................17
REQUIRED BY TYPE PER 5-YEAR PERIOD (WIARTON)
5.2.4 FUTURE LAND REQUIREMENTS BY DWELLING TYPE...................................................18
5.2.5 VACANT RESIDENTIAL LANDS BY BUILD-OUT PERIOD.................................................18
5.2.6 VACANT LAND INVENTORY SUMMARY........................................................................19
5.2.7 NEW RESIDENTIAL LAND REQUIRED FOR ANTICIPATED GROWTH SUMMARY...............20
5.3.1 EMPLOYMENT (PROJECTED NUMBER OF JOBS)..........................................................21
5.3.2 ESTIMATED SQUARE FEET PER EMPLOYMENT SECTOR..............................................22
5.3.3 ESTIMATED EMPLOYMENT LAND REQUIRED ­ 2029.....................................................23
5.3.4 EMPLOYMENT LAND SUPPLY VS. DEMAND TO 2029 ­ SUMMARY..................................25

LIST OF APPENDICES

APPENDIX 1 VACANT LAND SUMMARY

APPENDIX 2 UNCOMMITTED RESERVE WATER CAPACITY ANALYSIS

APPENDIX 3 UNCOMMITTED RESERVE CAPACITY ANALYSIS ­ WIARTON SEWAGE SYSTEM

APPENDIX 4 PRELIMINARY STORMWATER MANAGEMENT REVIEW SUMMARY

APPENDIX 5 WIARTON LAND USE SCHEDULE B ­ TOWN OF SOUTH BRUCE PENINSULA
OFFICIAL PLAN

APPENDIX 6 PROPOSED LAND USE DESIGNATION MODIFICATIONS ­ WIARTON SOUTH
Comprehensive Review of Land Use
Designations in Wiarton 3

1.0 INTRODUCTION

1.1 Purpose of Study

Cuesta Planning Consultants Inc. has been retained by the Town of South Bruce
Peninsula to undertake a Comprehensive Review of Land Use Policies and Land Use
Designations within the Wiarton Primary Urban Area. The purpose of this study is to
estimate how much residential and employment land is required to accommodate long-
term growth in the community and recommend its preferred location.

The need for this study arises from recent development interests proposing to re-
designate employments lands within the southwest area of the Town of Wiarton for
future residential development purposes. The study has also been undertaken to assist
the Town in addressing other issues, such as the allocation of future infrastructure
servicing and the overall desire to provide sufficient employment opportunities for
residents to foster a self-sustaining economic base for the Town.

The Town of Wiarton, like many other rural communities in Ontario, is coming under
increased pressure to re-designate its employment land supply to other uses, typically
for future residential purposes. A proposal has been submitted to develop an adult
lifestyle community on approximately 95 hectares (235 acres) located in the southwest
area of the Town of Wiarton on part of Lots 1, 2 and 3, Concession 21. The majority of
these lands are presently designated for employment purposes and this proposal will
require a conversion to residentially-designated lands as well as an expansion of the
existing settlement area boundary. Prior to converting employment lands to another use
or expanding the urban boundary, a "Comprehensive Review" is necessitated in
accordance with the minimum requirements of the Provincial Policy Statement (PPS).

This analysis of residential and employment land need in the Town of Wiarton is
undertaken within the context of a clear Provincial policy direction to encourage the
development of self-sustaining communities which foster a strong economy.
The Provincial Policy Statement emphasizes the importance of a diversified economic
base including maintaining a range of housing, sufficient supporting infrastructure and
the need to provide sufficient opportunities for employment activities. The requirement
for a planning authority to complete a comprehensive review upon consideration of
employment land conversion or urban boundary expansion proposals this provincial
direction.

1.2 Study Context

This comprehensive review assessment is prepared in accordance with applicable
residential and employment land supply objectives provided in the County Official Plan
and Provincial Policy Statement. The purpose of this report is to review the demand and
supply of residential and employment land in the Town of Wiarton and recommend the
extent and arrangement of future development designations specifically within the
south-western settlement area. . Accordingly, this report is structured as follows:
Comprehensive Review of Land Use
Designations in Wiarton 4

- The following section of this report assess the policy framework within which the
comprehensive review requirements are prescribed as well as those policy
elements that must be reflected, i.e. upper tier growth projections, in the
comprehensive review document.

- The third and fourth sections outline the process and methodology used to
complete this comprehensive review report including the methods to which
housing and employment land demand versus supply has been considered.

- The fifth section of this report provides an assessment of past population growth
and development trends which, in turn, are used to provide future population
projection scenarios for the municipality.

Also assessed in this section is the residential housing growth anticipated for the
Town. Existing vacant residential lands are calculated and a comparison of
housing demand vs. supply is established. Conclusions are provided on the need
for additional residential land designations.

Similar to the manner in which housing growth is projected, the employment
forecast, including the number of jobs that will need to be accommodated on
employment land is reviewed. The amount of existing employment land
designated within the town is compared against the anticipated employment
growth to determine if future employment land is required, or if a reduction of
employment land is appropriate.

- The sixth section assesses existing infrastructure servicing as well as potential
expansions or upgrades that would be required for future development within the
study area.

- The seventh section reviews the existing policy framework applicable to the
Wiarton south study area. Provincial and County policy objectives as well ad
detailed land use policies contained in the local Official Plan are discussed.
General recommendations on development design and layout are also
considered.

- The eighth section considers options that are available to accommodate the
Town's anticipated growth. A preferred location for alternative designations is
recommended based on a review of existing and planned infrastructure, planned
development concepts recently submitted for municipal input as well as strategic
land use planning considerations.
Comprehensive Review of Land Use
Designations in Wiarton 5

2.0 POLICY IMPLICATIONS FOR COMPREHENSIVE REVIEW

2.1 Provincial Policy Statement

The Provincial Policy Statement, 2005 (PPS) provides policy direction on matters
relating to land use planning that are of provincial interest. It is issued under the
authority of Section 3 of the Planning Act and any decision by any authority that affects
a planning matter "shall be consistent" with the PPS.

The 2005 PPS contains policies requiring municipalities to ensure sufficient land is
made available to accommodate anticipated growth. Such growth is to be
accommodated through intensification and redevelopment and, if necessary, designated
growth areas to allow for an appropriate range and mix of employment opportunities,
housing and other land uses to meet the projected needs for a time horizon of up to 20
years. The PPS further requires that municipalities maintain a minimum 10 year land
supply availability through residential intensification and redevelopment and, if
necessary, vacant lands which are designated and available for residential
development. Municipalities are also required to maintain a 3 year supply of residential
land with servicing capacity which is suitably zoned to facilitate residential intensification
and redevelopment, or in draft approved and registered plans.

The PPS promotes growth in settlement areas and requires that their vitality and
regeneration be promoted. Giving priority to compact form, redevelopment,
intensification and brownfield redevelopment, as well as ensuring settlement area
boundary expansions are only considered when supported by a comprehensive review,
helps to create sustainable communities for the long term.

There are increasing pressures in many communities to convert employment lands to
other uses, such as low-density housing. The PPS recognizes the importance of
protecting needed employment lands for the long term and requires that communities
have sufficient land available to support their future economic prosperity. The PPS
requires that a comprehensive review be undertaken to permit the expansion of
settlement area boundaries and/or conversion of lands within employment areas to non-
employment uses. In this regard, the PPS states that a planning authority may permit
the conversion of lands within employment areas to non-employment uses through a
comprehensive review, only where it has been demonstrated that the land is not
required for employment purposes over the long term and that there is a need for the
conversion.

The PPS defines a comprehensive review as "an official plan review which is initiated by
a planning authority, or an official plan amendment which is initiated or adopted by a
planning authority, which:

1. is based on a review of population and growth projections and which reflect
projections and allocations by upper-tier municipalities and provincial plans,
where applicable; considers alternative directions for growth; and determines
how best to accommodate this growth while protecting provincial interests;
Comprehensive Review of Land Use
Designations in Wiarton 6

2. utilizes opportunities to accommodate projected growth through intensification
and redevelopment;
3. confirms that the lands to be developed do not compromise specialty crop areas
in accordance with policy 2.3.2;
4. is integrated with planning for infrastructure and public service facilities; and
5. considers cross-jurisdictional issues.

2.2 County of Bruce Official Plan Policies

The policies of the Bruce County Official Plan encourage and strengthen the role of
Primary Urban Communities, including Wiarton and Sauble Beach as regional service
centres within the County. It is further specified that the majority of anticipated
permanent population growth shall be directed to Primary Urban Communities
(5.2.2.2)". Industrial growth particularly that which requires municipal water and sewage
services is also encouraged to locate within primary urban communities.

The comprehensive review requirements of the PPS noted above state that any review
of population and growth projections must reflect those projections of the upper tier
municipality. Section 4.4.2 of the Bruce County Official Plan specifies that the County is
expected to grow by approximately 21,300 permanent residents to the year 2016.
These projections are based on those population projections supplied by the Ontario
Ministry of Finance. Based on an average household size of 2.7 persons per unit, the
County anticipates a total of 7,900 additional units will be required to house the
projected population growth in the County over this period. It is the policy of this official
plan to direct the majority of this growth to Primary and Secondary Urban Communities
and Hamlet Communities in the following proportional breakdown:
Comprehensive Review of Land Use
Designations in Wiarton 7

Category Area Population Percentage of Total
Increase

1 Primary & Secondary 13,202 62.0%
Urban Communities plus
Sauble Beach and
Tobermory
2 Rural Bruce Peninsula 4,915 23.1%
including hamlets,
shoreline areas and inland
lake areas
3 Rural South Bruce 2,166 10.2%
Lakeshore including
shoreline and hamlet
areas
4 Rural South Bruce Interior 1,011 4.7%
including hamlets and
inland lake areas

TOTAL 21,294 100.0%

For the purposes of this study, the above noted proportional breakdown will be applied
to the municipal population growth projections when determining the allocation of new
development towards Wiarton and Sauble Beach primary urban communities.

2.3 Town of South Bruce Peninsula Official Plan

The formulation of more detailed land use policies which guide and control development
while clearly defining settlement area boundaries is delegated to the formulation of local
Official Plans. The Town of South Bruce Peninsula Official Plan indicates that in 1996,
the population for the town equalled 8135 which is slightly higher than the present day
(2001) population of 7,500 persons. This Official Plan predicts a population increase to
9,800 persons by the year 2021 which represents an increase of approximately 821
units based on an assumed household size of 2.8 persons per unit. Similar to the
County of Bruce Official Plan, the growth policies for the South Bruce Peninsula Official
Plan requires that the "majority of growth be directed towards areas serviced with
municipal sewer and water, such as Wiarton". Given that the Sauble Beach primary
urban community is presently undertaking an environmental assessment process for the
provision of municipal sanitary servicing for its core area, Sauble beach will also be
deemed as a primary receptor for anticipated population growth for the purposes of this
study.
Comprehensive Review of Land Use
Designations in Wiarton 8

3.0 STUDY PROCESS SUMMARY

The purpose of this report is to provide a review of projected population growth and
associated housing and employment land demand anticipated for the municipality for
the next twenty year planning period (2009 ­ 2029). This population, housing and
employment forecast will allow for a comparison against the amount of land presently
designated and available to accommodate this anticipated growth. In meeting the
comprehensive review requirements of the Provincial Policy Statement, population
projections for the municipality are prepared with regard for the existing population
projections specified in the County and local Official Plans.

In order to determine whether the residential land supply requirements of the Provincial
Policy Statement and the County Official Plan could be satisfied, the forecasted
population growth is used to derive the anticipated residential demand for the Town of
Wiarton. This projected housing demand is compared to the existing estimated supply
of residential land, including known potential infilling and intensification opportunities
within Wiarton. Based on this assessment of projected housing demand against existing
land supply, this study examines whether intensification opportunities and the supply of
vacant residential growth lands within Wiarton are adequate to accommodate the
projected demand for future residential lands for the short and long-term planning
periods.

A similar exercise is undertaken for employment lands. The study inventories the supply
of vacant employment lands, both serviced and designated future growth areas within
Wiarton. The employment forecast for the town is based on the projected population for
the municipality and is assessed against existing land availability. The study then further
examines whether the current supply of vacant employment land is adequate to
accommodate the projected demand for employment uses during the planning period.
Comprehensive Review of Land Use
Designations in Wiarton 9

4.0 METHODOLOGY
POPULATION
PROJECTION

DEDUCTION DWELLING OCCUPANCY
PROJECTION METHOD PROJECTION METHOD
("Conservative") ("High Growth")
LINEAR PROJECTION
METHOD
1. Ministry of Finance 2006 ("Medium Growth") 1. Future building permit activity
Population Projections is projected based on historic
prepared for Bruce County trends

1. Future linear growth rate is
projected based on past
growth trend.
2. Past relationship of Town 2. Projected number of new
Population as a proportion of dwellings is multiplied by the
the County is examined projected household size

3. County population projections
are disaggregated to form
municipal population
projections

DEDUCTION Method
represents conservative
population projection

HOUSING EMPLOYMENT
PROJECTION PROJECTION

1. Identify proportion of 1. Determine activity rates per
household maintainers by employment sector (number
age groups of jobs / number of residents)

2. Divide number of household 2. Multiply projected activity
maintainers by overall rates by projected population
population to determine
headship rates

3. Multiply headship rates by
projected population to PROJECTED EXISTING LAND
determine the number of new
dwellings
LAND DEMAND SUPPLY

4. Allocation to Settlement 1. Determine Employee Sq.Ft. 1. Inventory of all vacant land
Areas requirements per sector designated for employment
based on spatial assumptions uses in Wiarton

2. Apply lot coverage
PROJECTED EXISTING LAND assumption to Sq.Ft.
LAND DEMAND SUPPLY requirements per industry

1. Subtract number of dwellings 1. Inventory vacant lots 3. Allocate majority of
in planning process since designated `Residential' anticipated employment
2006 (Draft approved, demand to Wiarton
Currently under review, etc.)

2. Apply density provisions of 2. Apply Official Plan housing DETERMINE FUTURE LAND
the Wiarton Official Plan to mix target to vacant land REQUIREMENTS
remaining projected inventory (70% low density, (Projected Land Need ­
dwellings. 30% med-density) Existing Supply)

DETERMINE FUTURE LAND
REQUIREMENTS
(Projected Land Need ­
Existing Supply)
Comprehensive Review of Land Use
Designations in Wiarton 10

5.0 GROWTH FORECASTS

5.1 POPULATION PROJECTION

Population projection can be based on a number of methodologies such as the gravity
based model, a cohort survival model, a population cap, or a linear projection.

The gravity based model assumes that an area has an inherent level of attraction and it
will draw people to the area like gravity. The saturation point is achieved, or capacity is
reached at an unknown point in time when people are no longer drawn to the area
because the very elements that attracted the people in the first place have changed as
a result of the number of people present. It is possible that a new gravity force can then
come into play if the new environment attracts or appeals to yet another group of
people. With the gravity based approach, it is a wait-and-see method of planning where
the approval authority is reactive rather than pro-active with projection formulation.
Communities that are oriented around a dominant feature of attraction, such as
recreation amenities, special employment circumstances, etc. are best suited for the
gravity based projection approach. The gravity based model has been applied for future
projections in the Blue Mountain area because of the abundant recreational amenities in
this location. This "magnetic approach" appears to have substantial validity in this
instance as witnessed by the intrawest resort developments and corresponding
permanent and seasonal population growth that is not explained by the traditional
cohort survival technique.

As stated by the proponent of the adult lifestyle community, the proposal intends to be
an attractive new community for senior lifestyle purposes. The community is not
intended to be a "seniors-only" environment, but also intends to appeal to younger
adults seeking moderately priced dwelling units. The proposal appears to follow a
vacant condominium format in which residents will retain ownership of their individual
units with the overall land ownership and maintenance being the responsibility of the
development corporation. It is anticipated that this development will consist of 1200 to
1500 new residential units to proceed through phased development over the long term
(15 to 20 year time period is anticipated).

The proponent anticipates that this adult lifestyle community concept will be an
attraction for new residents which will foster development to occur at a faster pace than
what may be predicted from historical growth trends. Therefore the "magnet approach'
to formulating population projections may be possible in support of a development of
this nature, given that an induced form of growth is anticipated to be generated by the
attractiveness of the development itself. However, the difficulty in applying this type of
projection rationale to a small community such as Wiarton is that there is some
uncertainty as to the degree of residential attraction to this area in such a manner that
would support a large-scale development of this nature. Historically, there does not
appear to be an enhanced level of attraction to this area that would skew traditional
projection methodology. However, for the purposes of this report, a population
Comprehensive Review of Land Use
Designations in Wiarton 11

projection range has been provided for the Township's consideration in the formulation
of future growth policies.

5.1.1 Linear Population Projection

The population forecast for the Town of South Bruce Peninsula was derived from known
values for population and occupied dwellings through available 1986 to 2006 census
information. The forecasts were calculated by supplementing the known census values
with other dwelling and building permit information provided by the Town.

The linear projection method was initially considered as it is one of the simplest
projection methods typically applied to smaller rural communities with slower growth
rates. The linear projection method involves the projection of a municipal population
based on an extension of observed historic growth trends. Figure 3.1.1 below depicts
the linear population for the Town through the 2029 planning period. Using this
approach, by 2029, the population for the Town of South Bruce Peninsula is anticipated
to reach 10,490 residents which accounts for an increase of 2,080 permanent residents
through the planning period.

Figure 5.1.1 - Linear Population Projection for South Bruce Peninsula

13000

12000

11000
Number of People

10000

9000

8000

7000

6000

5000
1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
Year
Census Population Linear (Census Population)
Comprehensive Review of Land Use
Designations in Wiarton 12

5.1.2 Deduction Projection Method

A population projection by deduction utilizes an established population projection for a
larger area which is further disaggregated to determine the share of population for a
constituent local area. The Ontario Ministry of Finance prepares population projections
for the province and for various counties, districts and regional municipalities. These are
updated every five years following census data years. The province utilizes the cohort
survival method which derives population counts by single years of age and sex in the
base year. This base population is then aged one year at a time, with the expected
number of births, deaths, international migrants and interporvincial migrants being
added and subtracted each year.

The municipal population as a share of the County population has gradually increased
through observed census years 1986 to 2006. This may be attributable to the
abundance of shoreline areas, Sauble Beach and other recreational amenities within
the municipality which are attracting a greater number of residents to the area. In 1986,
the Town of South Bruce Peninsula accounted for 11.1% of the County population
whereas in 2006, this share of the County population increased to 12.8%. If it is
anticipated that this proportional relationship of the County's overall population will level
off around 13%, the following population projections can be derived for the Town of
South Bruce Peninsula as a proportional deduction of the Bruce County population
projections.

Table 5.1.2 - TOWN OF SOUTH BRUCE PENINSULA POPULATION PROJECTIONS
(2009-2029 PLANNING PERIOD)
2006
2009 2014 2019 2024 2029
(census)
0-4 320 414 462 486 484 465
5-9 375 405 436 481 508 509
10-14 450 491 449 476 519 549
15-19 510 593 509 465 490 531
20-24 400 581 548 484 443 461
25-29 305 506 518 506 461 422
30-34 305 397 514 533 534 495
35-39 420 409 423 524 546 555
40-44 560 484 436 444 533 559
45-49 585 673 519 474 480 566
50-54 690 691 701 560 517 521
55-59 770 700 756 786 651 608
60-64 695 697 767 843 896 766
65-69 615 571 731 811 904 980
70-74 515 452 527 679 757 854
75-79 435 306 355 419 545 614
80-84 235 194 219 257 307 404
85-89 225 99 111 127 152 186
90+ 44 55 64 75 90
Total 8410 8,706 9,033 9,417 9,803 10,134
Comprehensive Review of Land Use
Designations in Wiarton 13

The above noted deduction method depicts a lower-growth population scenario which
anticipates an overall population of 10,134 residents in 2029. This represents an
increase of 1,724 new permanent residents through the planning period.

5.1.3 Dwelling Occupancy Projection Method

In order to account for more localized economic conditions, historic building permit
activity has been considered in comparison to the foregoing projection methods.
Projecting population by dwelling occupancy considers the anticipated yearly increase
in occupied dwellings which is then multiplied by a projected average household size.
The Bruce County Housing Study prepared by Social Housing Strategists Inc. in March,
2005 provides a projected household size for the municipality through to 2021. The
initial observed household size of 2.29 persons per unit derived from the 2006 census is
projected to decline to 2.20 persons per household by 2021. This rate of decline is
projected to remain constant at 2.20 persons per household unit through the 2029
planning period.

Table 5.1.3 lists the number of residential building permits issued for new residential
dwelling construction in the Town from 1999 to the end of 2008. From this table it is
apparent that building permit activity for both residential and non-residential uses varies
considerably from year to year, but has averaged approximately 56 new dwellings per
year over the past decade.

Table 5.1.3 - Municipal Building Permit Activity
Building Permits Issued
Year Residential Industrial/Commercial/Institutional
1999 21 23
2000 59 22
2001 38 15
2002 56 11
2003 73 3
2004 68 7
2005 70 12
2006 70 12
2007 60 25
2008 49 10

Accordingly, the forecasted population was derived by multiplying the average
household size by the projected number of occupied dwellings. The forecasted
population for the year 2029 calculated through this method is 10,720 persons. This
higher-growth projection scenario may be attributable to the thriving economic
conditions enjoyed through the past five years which are reflected in the increased
building permit activity during this period. In light of the more recent economic downturn,
it may not be as reasonable to assume this level of residential building permit activity
will continue into the future.
Comprehensive Review of Land Use
Designations in Wiarton 14

As with any population projection method, future projections are based on past trends
and assumptions that they will remain valid into the future. It is a best-guess approach
to anticipating future development demand that a municipality can expect to
accommodate. For the purpose of this report, low, medium and high-growth projection
scenarios have been provided for municipal consideration. Table 3.2.2 below
summarizes the range of growth projection scenarios that are available for
consideration when formulating related housing and employment land use
requirements.

Table 5.1.4: Growth Scenarios - Summary
2009 2019 2019 2009-2029 Increase
Deduction Method (Low) 8,706 9,417 10,134 1,428
Linear Method (Medium) 8,830 9,660 10,491 1,661
Dwelling Occupancy Method (High) 8,425 9,572 10,720 2,295

The Town of South Bruce Peninsula is anticipated to grow by approximately 1,500 to
2,300 new permanent residents through the 2029 planning period based on the
foregoing projection scenarios. This range of population growth may be further applied
to housing and employment demand forecasts in the following sections of this report.

5.2 HOUSING PROJECTIONS

Household demand projections were prepared according to the Province's projection
guidelines. The preceding process used to calculate future housing demand for the
municipality is summarized as follows:

1. Identify the proportion of households maintained by specific age groups to
determine headship rates.
2. Determine the household demand propensities for those age groups by housing
structure type.
3. Apply the household demand propensities to the forecasted population by five-
year projection periods to determine projected housing demand by dwelling
structure type.

The data used to determine household headship rates and housing demand propensity
is based on 2006 census data obtained from Statistics Canada. The methodology is
consistent with that used by other counties, regions and municipalities as well as the
Ministry of Municipal Affairs and Housing (MMAH) and the Canadian Mortgage and
Housing Corporation (CMHC).

Household demand propensity describes the demand for certain types of housing by
people within various age groups. Household demand propensities tend to change over
a person's life span typically resulting from changes in lifestyle preferences and
affordability. Table 4.0.1 below depicts the household demand propensities by age
group for various dwelling types based on 2006 census information for the Municipality.
Comprehensive Review of Land Use
Designations in Wiarton 15

The proportions generated by these propensities are assumed to remain constant
throughout the planning projection period.

Table 5.2.1 - 2006 DWELLING DEMAND PROPENSITIES BY AGE OF PRIMARY HOUSEHOLD MAINTAINER
Total - Age groups
Under 25 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54 55 - 64 65 - 74 75 + of primary
Structural type of dwelling
years years years years years years years household
maintainer
Single-detached house 65 195 450 715 695 640 420 3175
Movable dwelling 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 15
Semi-detached house 0 0 0 10 0 10 0 25
Row house 0 0 0 0 0 0 15 15
Apartment, duplex 0 10 10 10 10 0 0 40
Apartment, building that
has fewer than five storeys 20 30 35 30 25 35 80 265
Other single-attached
house 0 10 0 0 15 20 0 45
Total - Structural type of
dwelling 80 250 510 765 745 710 520 3580
Source: Statistics Canada - 2006 Census. Catalogue Number 97-554-XCB2006034.

The foregoing indicates the household demand propensity suggestive of a rural
municipality. The overwhelming preference is the single family dwelling for all household
maintainers regardless of age group.

Housing demand projections were prepared by applying the foregoing housing demand
propensities and calculated headship rates (Number of household maintainers divided
by the overall population) to the population projections provided in Section 3.1 of this
report. Based on this assessment, a projected demand of 840 new housing units is
anticipated for the Town of South Bruce Peninsula for the planning period to 2029. The
following table provides a breakdown of the anticipated housing demand per dwelling
type.

Table 5.2.2 - HOUSING DEMAND PROJECTION SUMMARY
Other
Semi- Apartment, Apartment
Single- Movable Row Single- Projected 5-yr
YEAR Detached Detached Less Than
Detached Dwelling House attached Total Increase
House Duplex 5 Storeys
House
2006 3,180 10 20 15 40 255 45 3,565 N/A
2009 3,275 10 20 11 46 263 49 3,674 109
2014 3,376 10 21 13 46 265 55 3,786 111
2019 3,568 10 23 15 47 286 61 4,009 223
2024 3,746 11 23 18 46 310 62 4,216 208
2029 3,907 11 25 22 45 332 62 4,405 188
Total Increase: 840
Comprehensive Review of Land Use
Designations in Wiarton 16

Table 4.0.2 indicates that the total number of households is projected to increase from
approximately 3,565 in 2006 to 4,405 in 2029, a gain of 840 dwellings. This represents
a total increase in the order of 21% for the projected planning period, or a five year
average increase of 5.2% (186 units per five year period). The residential building
permit activity from the end of 2006 to the end of 2008 has been applied to the 2006
census base year housing figures in the above noted table. A total of 107 new
residential building permits were issued during this period which has been applied to the
2006 dwelling counts.

It should be noted that the foregoing household projection statistics are conservatively
derived from the low-growth projection scenario which depicted a population of 10,134
by 2029. Alternatively, if the more liberal growth scenarios are considered, an additional
255 new housing units may be anticipated in addition to the projected 840 dwellings
projected for the planning period. This equates to a rather negligible difference of
approximately 12 additional dwelling units per year. For the purposes of this study, the
conservative low-growth projection scenario has been applied to future housing and
employment projections.

5.2.1 Growth Allocation to Settlement Areas

Policy provisions for growth allocation at the Provincial, County and Local level have
been reviewed in Section 1.1 of this report. The Bruce County Official Plan intents to
direct the majority of growth (approximately 62%) to Primary and Secondary Urban
Communities and Hamlet Communities. The above noted housing and population
projections have been derived at a municipal-wide level and must be further allocated to
primary settlement areas within the municipality. Wiarton is presently the only fully
serviced settlement area in the municipality and the Official Plan for the Town of South
Bruce Peninsula stipulates that the majority of growth be directed towards areas
serviced with municipal sewer and water, such as Wiarton. For the purposes of this
report, an assumption that approximately 75% of all future development will be
accommodated within Wiarton. The following Table 5.2.3 provides a breakdown of
projected dwellings for Wiarton.
Comprehensive Review of Land Use
Designations in Wiarton 17

Table 5.2.3
PROJECTED NUMBER OF ADDITIONAL DWELLING UNITS REQUIRED BY TYPE PER 5-YEAR PERIOD (WIARTON)
Other
Semi- Apartment, Apartment
Single- Row Single- Projected
PERIOD Detached Detached Less Than 5
Detached House attached Total
House Duplex Storeys
House
2006-2009 71 0 -3 4 6 3 82
2010-2014 75 0 1 0 2 5 83
2015-2019 145 1 2 0 15 4 167
2020-2024 133 0 3 0 18 1 155
2025-2029 121 2 3 -1 16 0 141
TOTAL 545 4 5 4 58 13 629

5.2.2 Projected Residential Land Demand

The foregoing housing projections are converted into the overall residential land
requirements that will be needed to accommodate the anticipated housing growth. The
above noted figures for projected housing demand by housing type are based on
current demand predispositions which maintain the single detached dwelling as the
predominant housing choice.

From the projected long term housing need for the 2009 to 2029 period, the number of
vacant lots currently in the planning process must be deducted from this projected total.
The remaining future dwelling units required are converted to the total amount of land
needed based on applicable gross density provisions stated in the Official Plan as
follows:

- Low Density (11.3.1.5)
o Single detached: 15 units per hectare
o Semi-detached/Duplex: 20 units per hectare
- Medium Density (11.3.1.6)
o 35 units per hectare

Table 4.2.1 below summarizes the conversion of the anticipated housing unit demand to
the amount of land which will be required to accommodate new residential
development. Based on the above noted Official Plan density provisions, a total of 37.6
hectares will be required for new low-density housing development and 1.8 hectares
anticipated for projected medium-density residential development.
Comprehensive Review of Land Use
Designations in Wiarton 18

Table 5.2.4 - FUTURE LAND REQUIREMENTS BY DWELLING TYPE

Other Single- Semi- Apartment, Apartment
Single- Row Projected
attached Detached Detached Less Than 5
Detached House Total
House House Duplex Storeys
LOW DENSITY MEDIUM DENSITY
Official Plan Density (units per hectare) 15 15 20 20 35 35

Projected Housing
146 8 0 2 2 8 165
Need (2014)
5 Year Immediate
Land Requirement
(2009-2014) 9.73 0.53 0.00 0.10 0.06 0.23 10.65
Hectares Required
10.37 0.29

Projected Housing
291 12 0 4 3 33 331
Need (2019)
10 Year Short Term
Land Requirement
(2009-2019) 19.40 0.80 0.00 0.20 0.09 0.94 21.43
Hectares Required

20.40 1.03

Projected Housing
545 13 4 4 5 58 629
Need (2029)
20 Year Long Term
Land Requirement
(2009-2029) 36.33 0.87 0.20 0.20 0.14 1.66 39.40
Hectares Required

37.60 1.80
Comprehensive Review of Land Use
Designations in Wiarton 19

5.2.3 Residential Land Supply within the Town of Wiarton

The following intends to provide a comprehensive review of the land available for
residential growth anticipated within the Town of Wiarton. The vacant lot inventory data
has been derived from Geographic Information Systems (GIS) data provided by the
County of Bruce Planning and Economic Development Department based on current
Municipal Property Assessment Corporation (MPAC) assessment information. MPAC
data for vacant parcels has been verified by examining available 2006 aerial imagery.
Three categories of residential land supply are outlined in Table 4.3.1 according to
anticipated time periods for development build-out potential.

TABLE 5.2.5 ­ VACANT RESIDENTIAL LANDS BY BUILD-OUT PERIOD
1 to 3 years Existing vacant lots of record, vacant lots in registered plans
Immediate Supply
(2009 to 2012) of subdivision (LESS THAN 0.3 Hectares).
- Lots within draft approved Plans of Subdivision.
- Existing vacant lots less than 0.3 Hectares but are
10 years
Short Term Supply subject to constraints (i.e. access limitations, hazard
(2009 to 2019)
lands, etc).

Vacant lands presently designated for future residential uses
which are:
20 years - Greater than 0.3 Hectares
Long Term Supply
(2009 to 2029) - Lands that are presently designated for residential
purposes and are suitable for future plans of
subdivision.

The time periods used to define immediate, short and long-term lot supply periods are
stated solely for information purposes and do not reflect any particular assumption or
bias in population growth rate periods. They have been derived based on the
anticipated time frame devoted to meeting conditions of approval for draft plans of
subdivision, administrative review procedures among other approval processes.

Appendix 1 to this report illustrates all vacant parcels designated for residential
purposes in accordance with the Town of Wiarton Community Plan. As noted in Table
5.2.5, all existing vacant residential lots less than 0.3 hectares (0.75 acres) as well as
vacant lots in registered plans of subdivision are categorized as immediate residential
land supply for future development. The premises behind this grouping is that these lots
exist and a building permit can be obtained for these parcels without further
administrative review, subject only to municipal zoning provisions. All other vacant
properties within the Town which are designated for residential development have been
categorized as short and long-term residential land supply based on the following
criteria:

- Lots within draft approved plans of subdivision as well as existing lots which are
less than 0.3 hectares and are subject to development constraints (i.e. water
feature, hazard lands, no access to a public street, etc.)These lots therefore will
require further administrative review prior to the issuance of a building permit and
Comprehensive Review of Land Use
Designations in Wiarton 20

are categorized as residential lands available for the short-term planning period
(2009-2019).
- Lots which are greater than 0.3 hectares which may be subdivided into additional
building lots are considered available residential lands for the long-term planning
period (2009-2029)

Table 4.3.2 summarizes the vacant residential land supply within the Town. There is
presently a total of 23.8 hectares of vacant residential land available to accommodate
future residential development within Wiarton.

Table 5.2.6
VACANT LAND INVENTORY SUMMARY
NUMBER OF TOTAL TOTAL
LAND CATEGORY
PARCELS HECTARES ACRES
VACANT RESIDENTIAL
- IMMEDIATE SUPPLY (< 0.3 ha, 61 6.402 15.8
Unconstrained)

VACANT RESIDENTIAL
- SHORT TERM SUPPLY (< 0.3 ha, Draft 81 8.941 22.1
Approved, Require Further Review)
VACANT RESIDENTIAL
- LONG-TERM SUPPLY (Greater than 0.3 3 8.507 21.0
Hectares, Subdivision Potential)
T0TAL 145 23.850 58.9

5.2.4 Residential Land Required to Accommodate Projected Growth

The Provincial Policy Statement stipulates that in order to provide for an appropriate
range of housing types and densities, planning authorities shall maintain a minimum 10-
year land supply to accommodate residential growth. Planning authorities shall also
provide at least a three year supply of residential lands with sufficient servicing capacity
as well as lands within draft approved and registered plans in order to accommodate
new development. In this regard, the above noted vacant residential land supply must
be assessed against the anticipated residential land demand. This will determine the
amount of additional land that will need to be allocated to accommodate the anticipated
residential growth for the Town. The 23.9 hectares of vacant residential land must be
allocated to low density and medium density developments to compare against the
anticipated residential dwelling land requirements established in Section 5.2.2. The
Official Plan specifies a housing mix target for new development to be in the order of
70% low density to 30% medium density. Past trends in new residential development
activity, however, indicate a predominance of low density development which accounts
for approximately 90% of all new residential dwellings. In order to meet the Official Plan
target mix provisions while recognizing past development trends, an assumed target
mix of 80% low density residential will be applied to the vacant land inventory in Table
5.2.7.
Comprehensive Review of Land Use
Designations in Wiarton 21

Table 5.2.7 - NEW RESIDENTIAL LAND REQUIREMENT - SUMMARY
LOW DENSITY MEDIUM DENSITY

TOTAL NUMBER OF TOTAL NUMBER OF
HECTARES DWELLING UNITS HECTARES DWELLING UNITS
5 Year Immediate Land
Projected Housing Need
Requirement (2009- 10.37 156 0.29 10
(2014)
2014)
LAND SUPPLY 5.12 49 1.28 12

NEW LAND REQUIRED 5.25 -0.99

LOW DENSITY MEDIUM DENSITY

TOTAL NUMBER OF TOTAL NUMBER OF
HECTARES DWELLING UNITS HECTARES DWELLING UNITS
10 Year Short Term
Land Requirement Projected Housing Need
20.40 307 1.03 36
(2009-2019) (2019)

LAND SUPPLY 7.15 65 1.79 16

NEW LAND REQUIRED 13.25 -0.76

LOW DENSITY MEDIUM DENSITY

TOTAL NUMBER OF TOTAL NUMBER OF
HECTARES DWELLING UNITS HECTARES DWELLING UNITS
20 Year Long Term Projected Housing Need
Land Requirement 37.60 566 1.80 63
(2029)
(2009-2029)
LAND SUPPLY 6.81 1.70

NEW LAND REQUIRED 30.79 0.10
Comprehensive Review of Land Use
Designations in Wiarton 22

The foregoing Table 5.2.7 demonstrates that the majority of future residential growth
and resulting land demand will gravitate towards single detached dwellings. This is
based on historic development trends and is to be expected for a rural-recreation
community such as Wiarton. The Town of Wiarton requires an additional 5.25 hectares
of additional land to accommodate anticipated residential growth for the immediate five-
year planning window. This additional land requirement is based on the availability of
those existing vacant residential parcels which are best suited for residential infill
opportunities.

For the short and long term planning periods of 10 and 20 years, the land additional
land required for future residential growth amounts to 13.25 hectares and 30.79
hectares respectively. This is based on existing availability of those larger vacant
parcels which are suitable for plan-of-subdivision purposes or similarly, smaller vacant
parcels which are encumbered by various constraints and will require further
administrative review before development is realized. This, of course is based on the
assumption that all new residential dwellings will be constructed on existing vacant lots
prior to any future developments involving further lot creation or new residential land
designation. The most appropriate allocation of the foregoing future residential
development land will be examined later in this report.

5.3 EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS

Employment projections have been derived for the municipality based on the activity
rate method, which is defined as the number of jobs in a municipality divided by the
number of residents. Employment activity rates have been calculated for the projection
period based on an assessment of historical trends in the calculated rate over past
census periods in order to capture differing local economic cycles. The employment
activity rates applied to this projection are derived for key employment sectors
categorized as follows:

PRIMARY INDUSTRIAL EMPLOYMENT
- Categories which relate to local land-based resources such as Agriculture,
Forestry, Aggregates, etc.

INDUSTRIAL
- Categories which relate to manufacturing, construction, transportation, storage,
communication and other utilities

POPULATION RELATED EMPLOYMENT (COMMERCIAL)
- Categories related to population growth and commercial services within the
municipality including Wholesale and retail trade, finance, real-estate, business
services, accommodation, food services, etc.
Comprehensive Review of Land Use
Designations in Wiarton 23

INSTITUTIONAL
- Categories which relate to government services, education health and social
services, etc.

OTHER SERVICES
- Home occupation

As noted, employment activity rates are derived from previous census periods with
future rates being calculated based on past trends and assumptions. The projected
population for the municipality established in Section 3.1 for a given five-year period is
then multiplied by the anticipated activity rate for a specific employment category in
order to provide a projected total employment figure for that sector.

Table 5.3.1
EMPLOYMENT (Projected Number of Jobs)

Year PRIMARY OTHER
INDUSTRIAL COMMERCIAL INSTITUTIONAL TOTAL
INDUSTRY SERVICES

(Census) 2006 380 780 1360 655 900 4075
2009 419 813 1449 724 953 4359
2014 456 846 1535 786 1006 4629
2019 493 885 1625 848 1062 4913
2024 529 924 1714 906 1116 5189
2029 561 958 1790 957 1164 5431

20 Year
Growth 142 146 341 233 210 1072

5.3.1 Employment Land Demand

From the above noted employment projections noted in Table 5.0.1, assumptions
regarding employment densities must be applied to determine the amount of land
required to accommodate the anticipated growth in employment for the municipality.

Building square footage estimates per employment sector have been calculated based
on the following employee spatial requirements:

- 1,000 square feet per employee for industrial employment
- 500 square feet per employee for commercial employment
- 500 square feet per employee for institutional employment
Comprehensive Review of Land Use
Designations in Wiarton 24

Table 5.3.2
ESTIMATED SQUARE FEET PER EMPLOYMENT SECTOR
2009 2014 2019 2024 2029 20 YEAR
GROWTH

INDUSTRIAL
812,603 846,317 885,271 924,361 958,218 145,614
(1000 sq.ft./Employee)

COMMERCIAL
725,000 767,500 813,000 857,000 895,000 170,000
(500 sq.ft/Employee)

INSTITUTIONAL
362,000 393,000 424,000 453,000 479,000 117,000
(500 sq.ft/Employee)

TOTAL EMPLOYMENT 1,899,603 2,006,817 2,122,271 2,234,361 2,332,218 432,614

The above noted building square footage figures per employment sector must be
converted into overall future land requirements. Lot coverage assumptions based on
existing employment uses and applicable zoning provisions are applied to the above
noted square footage figures. Lot coverage assumptions for Commercial, Industrial and
Institutional uses in the Town of Wiarton are applied as follows:

- Commercial Employment ­ 30%
- Industrial Employment ­ 30%
- Institutional Employment ­ 40%

Table 5.3.2 summarizes the conversion of the anticipated growth in new jobs per sector
from 2009 to 2029 into the amount of additional employment lands that will be needed
to accommodate this employment growth. Based on a total growth of 720 new jobs in
the Industrial, Commercial and Institutional employment sectors (excluding growth in
primary industry and work-at-home employment sectors), a modest demand of 12.5
hectares of land is anticipated for new employment uses to 2029.

Table 5.3.3
ESTIMATED EMPLOYMENT LAND REQUIRED - 2029

NEW DENSITY (PER FLOOR AREA FLOOR AREA ASSUMED LOT LAND REQUIRED
LAND USE JOBS EMPLOYEE) (sq.ft.) (Hectares) COVERAGE (Hectares)
INDUSTRIAL 146 1000 sq.ft. 146000 1.356 30% 4.521
COMMERCIAL 341 500 sq.ft. 170500 1.584 30% 5.280
INSTITUTIONAL 233 500 sq.ft. 116500 1.082 40% 2.706
TOTAL: 12.507
Comprehensive Review of Land Use
Designations in Wiarton 25

5.3.2 Employment Land Designations in Wiarton

The supply of employment lands in the Town of Wiarton includes those lands
designated DOWNTOWN COMMERCIAL, HIGHWAY COMMERCIAL AND
INDUSTRIAL, MARINE COMMERCIAL and INDUSTRIAL in the Wiarton Community
Plan. Each of these designations is intended to accommodate different employment
functions, scales of development and permitted uses. The designations are summarized
as follows:

DOWNTOWN COMMERCIAL (Section 11.3.2.3) ­ The downtown commercial core
serves as the focus for business, retail and service facilities and remains the primary
gathering place for administrative and social functions. A wide variety of uses are
permitted with a more intensive form of development focused on the scale of the
pedestrian. Permitted employment uses specifically include retail, office, service,
administrative, cultural, community facility, medical, and entertainment functions.

MARINE COMMERCIAL (Section 11.3.2.4) ­ The lands subject to this designation are
situated along the western shoreline of Colpoys Bay at the base of the Niagara
Escarpment. Predominant land uses include marinas and facilities for the sale, rental,
servicing, repair and storage of water recreation vehicles.

HIGHWAY COMMERCIAL AND INDUSTRIAL (Section 11.3.3) ­ The most predominant
area is located at the south end of Wiarton, along Highway 6. The primary purposes of
those lands that fall within this designation is to accommodate commercial uses serving
the travelling public or those uses considered to be incompatible with the downtown
area. In addition, these areas support those uses which require larger sites to
accommodate buildings, storage and parking as well as a perceived need for visible
access to vehicular traffic. Permitted employment uses in this designation include
motels, motor vehicles sales and service centres, agricultural and industrial sales and
service facilities, contractor yards and fuel storage depots.

INDUSTRIAL (section 4.12) ­ Lands within this designation are also situated within the
southern portion of Wiarton along Highway 6 as well as additional lands south of Elm
Street in the southwest extent of the settlement area. These lands intend to
accommodate various industrial, office and retail and service commercial
establishments requiring large sites or those uses which are not suitable for a
commercial area. Permitted employment uses include traditional industries such as
manufacturing, processing, fabrication, assembly, warehousing and repair
establishments.
Comprehensive Review of Land Use
Designations in Wiarton 26

5.3.3 Supply of Vacant Employment Lands

For the purposes of this study, all vacant employment properties were categorized
according to commercial and industrial designations. Presently, there are no vacant
parcels subject to an institutional (Community Facility) designation and therefore
institutional employment lands have not been assessed in the employment land supply
analysis. The vacant Land Summary map in Appendix 1 to this report depicts all vacant
commercial and industrial lands in Wiarton.

There are 59.6 hectares (147.4 acres) of vacant commercial lands within the Town of
Wiarton, with an overwhelming majority of these lands (57.34 hectares (141.69 acres)
being situated in the highway commercial designation within the Wiarton south study
area. The remaining vacant commercial lands are situated within the Downtown
Commercial core area and generally consist of vacant parcels less than 0.2 hectares
(0.5 acres) in area.

The only lands designated for industrial purposes are situated in the Wiarton-south
study areas and consist of two potential industrial-park sites, one of which is situated
adjacent to Highway 6 and the other adjacent to Elm Street at the westerly settlement
area boundary limit. These designated lands consist entirely of vacant parcels which
constitute 78.1 hectares (192.9 acres).

The foregoing vacant employment land inventory is assessed against the anticipated
employment land demand in order to determine if additional land is required. Table 5.4
outlines the amount of additional employment land needed as a factor of the amount of
land anticipated minus the existing supply. The resulting figure is an overall land surplus
of 125 hectares of vacant lands designated for employment purposes within the Town.

Table 5.3.4
EMPLOYMENT LAND SUPPLY VS. DEMAND TO 2029 - SUMMARY
ESTIMATED EMPLOYMENT VACANT LAND AVAILABLE
LAND
REQUIRED NUMBER OF TOTAL ADDITIONAL LAND
LAND USE NEW JOBS (Hectares) PARCELS HECTARES REQUIRED
INDUSTRIAL 146 4.521 3 78.052 -73.531
COMMERCIAL 341 5.280 27 59.637 -54.357
INSTITUTIONAL 233 2.706 0 0 2.706
TOTAL: 720 12.507 30 137.689 -125.182

A major surplus of employment land exists predominantly within the south Wiarton study
area in comparison to the projected employment established in Section 5.0.
Notwithstanding this employment land assessment has been based on an ambitious
assumption that most, if not all of the new employment development anticipated for the
Comprehensive Review of Land Use
Designations in Wiarton 27

town, specifically highway commercial and industrial sectors, will be directed to occur in
Wiarton. A total of 125.1 hectares of surplus designated vacant employment land exists
and will serve as a prime candidate for potential land use re-designation subject to
further review at a later stage of this study.

5.4 PROJECTED GROWTH SUMMARY

The foregoing intends to provide an assessment of historical population and
development growth trends as a precursor for projected future growth within the
municipality. The established future growth in population, housing and employment has
been compared to existing residential and employment land inventory in order to
determine the amount of additional land required to accommodate expected growth in
accordance with provincial policy.

Residential Development

Based on the PPS preference for new residential dwellings to locate on existing vacant
lots of record prior to new residential land allocation, an additional 30.89 hectares of
residential land are required to accommodate long term growth in Wiarton for the 2009
to 2029 planning period. Given the rural nature of this region, the majority preference for
single-detached dwellings is prevalent. Therefore it is likely that additional lands will
need to be allocated for residential purposes notwithstanding this minor surplus of low
density residential lands. With regard to medium density residential lands, a slightly
greater surplus exists in the order of 4.2 hectares of additional land available to
accommodate medium density development beyond what is anticipated for the Town.

Employment Lands

The majority of vacant commercial and industrial employment lands exist within the
southern extent of the Wiarton settlement area, south of Elm Street and west of
Highway 6. Lands within this area designated for highway commercial and industrial
purposes account for 135.4 hectares which represents 98% of all vacant employment
lands in Wiarton. Based on the projected employment activity anticipated for the
municipality, 12.5 hectares of employment lands are required to accommodate the
projected employment growth. This is based on an ambitious assumption that most, if
not all new employment, specifically industrial, highway commercial and institutional
sectors will be allocated to Wiarton. Therefore, a significant surplus of employment
lands exists and is in the order of 125 hectares of land beyond the anticipated
employment demand. It is apparent that these surplus vacant employment lands will
serve as a prime candidate for re-designation to more appropriate land use allocations.

The following sections to this report will provide an assessment and allocation of future
development designations based on the foregoing background material as well as other
factors such as servicing infrastructure, existing growth and intensification policies and
input from municipal staff, council, stakeholders and members of the public. This
Comprehensive Review of Land Use
Designations in Wiarton 28

additional review will supplement the background material and projection methodology
included in this report to provide a complete comprehensive review document.
6.0 INFRASTRUCTURE

6.1 Wiarton Water Treatment and Distribution System

In April, 2009 a review of uncommitted, remaining water and sewage capacity was
prepared by Genivar Consultants (Henderson Paddon & Associates Ltd.) for the Town
of Wiarton. A summary table of the uncommitted reserve water capacity analysis is
included in Appendix 2 to this report.

There are 1,157 actual, existing residential, institutional, commercial and industrial
connections on the Wiarton water system. Based on the systems rated capacity coupled
with the observed maximum and average day water demand from 2005 to 2007, an
additional 935 remaining connections can be accommodated on this water system.
However, there are 301 committed, but unconnected connections at this time which
consist of the following:

- Watson Street extension (30 new connections)
- Dawson Street/John Street extension (16 new connections)
- Elm Street extension (15 new connections)
- South lands servicing extension ­ Highway 6 and Part Lot 1, Concession 20 (50
new connections)
- Approved Subdivisions (94 new connections)
- Vacant lots on existing services (96 connections)

The net remaining, uncommitted reserve capacity is 634 connections (935 connections
minus 301 committed but unused connections).

A preliminary review of fire flow availability in the Wiarton south settlement area lands
was also provided in the Genivar report. This analysis was undertaken as the elevation
of the lands south of Elm Street and West of Highway 6 are quite high (approximately
210 m A.S.L. ) compared to the bottom of the fire storage component of the water tower
(235 m A.S.L.). The analysis concluded that a fire flow of approximately 112 L/s should
be available at the last hydrant on the existing 300 mm diameter watermain south of
Elm Street on Highway 6 which exceeds the required 95 L/s. As development occurs in
this area, it is anticipated that additional watermains would be constructed to provide a
local watermain grid system to reinforce water flows in the area. Pending final details of
the proposed adult lifestyle community anticipated for this area, no significant additional
water distribution infrastructure such as booster stations or additional reservoirs appear
to be required at this time.

6.2 Wiarton Sewage System
Comprehensive Review of Land Use
Designations in Wiarton 29

The sewage system analysis contained in the Genivar report provides a review of the
average day sewage flow treatment capacity of the Wiarton lagoon system. The sewage
system consists of 965 existing wastewater connections. A summary table of the
uncommitted reserve wastewater capacity evaluation is included in Appendix 3 to this
report. Based on the average rated flow capacity of 2,500 m3/day coupled with the
observed average day flow from 2005 to 2007(1,848 m3/day), an additional 494
remaining connections can be accommodated on this system. Similarly to the water
treatment system, there are 331 committed, but unconnected connections at this time in
which are comprised of the following:

- Watson Street extension (30 new connections)
- Frank Street extension (30 new connections)
- Dawson Street/John Street extension (16 new connections)
- Elm Street extension (15 new connections)
- South lands servicing extension ­ Highway 6 and Part Lot 1, Concession 20 (50
new connections)
- Approved Subdivisions (94 new connections)
- Vacant lots on existing services (96 connections)

The net remaining, uncommitted reserve capacity is 163 connections (494 connections
minus 331 committed but unused connections).

With regard to a review of wastewater servicing specifically within the study area, a new
sewage pumping station, forcemain and trunk sewer as well as local sanitary sewers
will be required prior to any major new development. The sewage pumping station at
Elm Street/Taylor Street is currently at maximum capacity during peak flow events and
will also require improvements to increase this pumping capacity before any significant
development occurs. Previous studies undertaken have estimated the capital cost to
undertake the foregoing sewage infrastructure upgrades will be in the order of
approximately $1.5 million, as of 2008. This value excludes the costs of local sewers
and the additional upgrades recommended for the Elm Street/Taylor Street sewage
pumping station.

Based on the foregoing, no significant upgrades to the water supply, treatment or
storage works would be required to expand water servicing in the Wiarton south study
area. To expand wastewater servicing in this area, significant improvements are
required, including upgrades to the existing Elm Street/Taylor Street pumping station as
well as a new forcemain and trunk sanitary sewer. Details on any new servicing
infrastructure as well as need improvements to the existing systems in this area will
need to be evaluated in conjunction with a more detailed development proposal for the
study area.

6.3 Transportation
Comprehensive Review of Land Use
Designations in Wiarton 30

Provincial Highway No. 6 is the major north-south transportation corridor for the Bruce
Peninsula which borders the eastern boundary of the Wiarton south study area. This is
a major thoroughfare for communities within the Bruce peninsula and links the City of
Owen Sound with Tobermory. The study area is bound to the north by Elm Street
(Concession Road 21) and Boat Lake Road (Grey Road 17). The majority of lands
adjacent to Highway 6 are designated for Highway Commercial purposes in the Wiarton
Community Plan. These lands are intended for those commercial and clean industrial
uses that depend on a high degree of vehicular traffic access and visibility and also
require a larger lot area than what typically may be available in the urban centre. Local
Official Plan policy discourages strip commercial development in a manner which would
create repetitive access points along Highway 6. It is also a mandate of the Ontario
Ministry of Transportation to minimize direct access to Highway 6 in order to maintain
safe and efficient vehicular movement along this corridor. Therefore, an internal road
network to service these lands adjacent to Highway 6, including service road options
should be implemented in a manner which integrates the existing surrounding road
fabric and unopened road allowances for future development.

6.4 Stormwater Management

In May, 2009 Genivar Consultants (formerly Henderson Paddon & Associates Ltd.)
prepared a preliminary stormwater management review summary for the Wiarton south
planning area (Appendix 4). This preliminary stormwater review identifies three
catchment areas, the first of which (Area A) is a 17.2 hectare northeast section. The
current outlet of this section is northeasterly through the Township of Georgian Bluffs
via an existing culvert under Highway 6 to an existing stormwater management pond
(SWMP) owned by the Grey Sauble Conservation Authority. Area B consists of the
northwest 48.5 hectare section of the study area. The drainage outlet of this catchment
area is northwesterly under Elm Street, then westerly as a municipal drain under North
Acres Road through Clavering Creek to Boat Lake. Area C includes the remaining 96.7
hectare south section of the study area, of which the outlet is westerly to Clavering
Creek, then northwards under Elm Street terminating in Boat Lake.

Preliminary measures suggested for accommodating increased capacity of stormwater
runoff include generally maintaining the existing drainage pattern and constructing on-
site stormwater management ponds within development parcels.

6.5 Public Service Facilities

There are a number of public service facilities that should be considered when
evaluating proposed changes to land use designations and the settlement area
boundary for the Wiarton south lands. Of special importance are facilities relating to
health, education and municipal services.
Comprehensive Review of Land Use
Designations in Wiarton 31

Most of these services are situated within the Wiarton downtown area. Health services
are provided by the Grey Bruce Health Services ­ Wiarton Hospital which is located
near the southeast corner of Mary Street and Berford Street (Highway 6). The hospital
provides emergency care to the high influx of seasonal visitors to the southern
peninsula and Sauble Beach and is well suited for expanding development within the
south study area.

The Peninsula Shores District School is the only school facility situated in Wiarton. It is
a newly constructed public school offering junior kindergarten through grade 12. This
school serves as the secondary school facility for students from Hepworth Central
School, Amabel Sauble Community School and Cape Croker Elementary School. The
school is situated at the southwest corner of George Street and Watson Street and is
approximately 0.5 metres north of the study area.

The municipal office for the Town of South Bruce Peninsula is located in the downtown
area at the corner of George Street and Berford Street (Highway 6).

7.0 EXISTING POLICY DIRECTION AND CONSIDERATIONS

7.1 Provincial Interests

The purpose and intent of this report is to examine the land use policy designations for
the Wiarton South Study Area and evaluate projected growth that may warrant other
designations in accordance with Provincial policy. Provincial interests emphasize
sustainable development practices through growth initiatives within urban centres,
enhanced environmental protection, service and infrastructure efficiencies and
improvement of the public realm and community stewardship. The 2005 Provincial
Policy Statement (PPS) encourages the accommodation of new development and
growth through residential infill and intensification, more compact built form, mixed use,
transit oriented and accessibility supportive development, reuse and rehabilitation of the
built environment, and brown and greyfield developments. The PPS further promotes
greater service, infrastructure and energy efficiencies, alternative and innovative
regulatory standards, enhanced open spaces and public realms. These provincial policy
objectives as well as the detailed land use policies outlined in the following subsection
are to be assessed against future growth allocation options including the adult lifestyle
community proposal.

7.2 Local Official Plan Policies

The Town of South Bruce Peninsula Official Plan is the primary vehicle for implementing
long-range provincial and county policy directives and interests. The Wiarton
Community Plan forms a component to the Town of South Bruce Peninsula Official Plan
and contains goals, actions and policies intended to maintain and strengthen the
economic, environmental and social fabric for the community of Wiarton. Appendix 5
shows the existing land use designations specific to the Wiarton south study area.
Comprehensive Review of Land Use
Designations in Wiarton 32

Residential

Section 11.3 of this plan outlines the policies for residential land uses within Wiarton. It
is recognized that single detached homes are the predominant housing type in Wiarton
and will continue to predominate future development initiatives. However there is a need
to promote a mixed and affordable supply of housing to meet the current and future
needs of all segments of the community. Residential objectives or "Actions" are
prescribed as follows:
a) Encourage a reasonable supply of building lots and blocks for future residential
development.
b) Encourage a wide range of housing types and designs.
c) Promote a range of single detached residential lot sizes.
d) Encourage the design of new residential areas for safe pedestrian travel.
e) Promote new industrial and commercial development to decrease residential taxes.
f) Attempt to maintain at least 25% of all residential housing opportunities affordable for
low and moderate income.
g) Improve housing opportunities for Community members with special needs including low
income people, seniors and supportive housing for the physically and developmentally
handicapped.
h) Encourage new residential development to be consistent and compatible with
surrounding heritage resources.
The Wiarton Community Plan prescribes housing mix target of 70% low density
housing, 30% medium density housing. Low density residential development includes
single detached, semi-detached and duplex dwellings and is subject to a maximum
gross density of 20 units per hectare. Medium density residential development policies
govern triplexes, 4-plexes, townhouses, row-houses and three-storey apartments.
Historic residential development trends indicate 90% proportion of single detached
dwellings. A greater policy emphasis should be placed on encouraging a wide variety of
housing formats and densities to reflect this 70% single detached housing objective.
The following design criteria have been provided in the Wiarton Community Plan for
future medium density residential development:
i) compatibility with existing land uses in the immediate area and the historical
ii) character of existing buildings;
iii) designed with a maximum of three (3) stories and where possible, a building profile
which conforms visually with the surrounding residential structures;
iv) availability of adequate off-street parking and appropriate access and circulation for
vehicular traffic, including emergency vehicles;
Comprehensive Review of Land Use
Designations in Wiarton 33

v) necessary buffering from abutting uses;
vi) suitable landscaping, lot grading, drainage and on-site amenities; and,
vii) the availability of full municipal services to accommodate the proposed density of
development.

This established design policy framework intends to ensure that new residential
development is compatible with the existing development character, appropriate access
and servicing are available and transition measures are provided for abutting uses. In
consideration of future residential designations within the Wiarton South settlement
area, there should be less reliance on standardized and somewhat rigid "cookie-cutter"
zoning and infrastructure standards to regulate proposed developments. Greater
encouragement should be given to innovative and flexible building formats and site
design options which will allow for adaptation to changing adult lifestyles and family
situations. Additionally, site design, infrastructure and servicing standards should be
considered to best accommodate new development within a finite and increasingly
compact built environment in a manner which differs from estate-style residential
developments typical of the area. Innovative site, building and infrastructure design
initiatives may serve to optimize the efficient use of available space to minimize
potential environmental disruption, ensure infrastructure efficiency and create visibility
amenity space, open spaces, passive and active recreational areas, streetscapes and
pedestrian linkages.

Policy framework should be built around mechanisms that support and promote
landscaping, greening, buffering, berming, screening, vegetation, accessibility and
connectivity to man-made and natural heritage areas. Further emphasis should be given
to innovative building design, building siting, facades, height, massing, and terracing to
enhance ground level and above ground amenity and open space.

Highway Commercial
There is a predominant area designated for highway commercial purposes adjacent to
Highway 6 within the Wiarton South study area. The intent of the highway commercial
designation is to provide opportunities for the establishment of those commercial uses
and environmentally clean industries that are dependent on a high degree of visible
access and require larger sites that what can typically be provided in a downtown area.
The primary goals of the highway commercial policies are to promote businesses that
will provide a diversified economic base, greater employment opportunities and clean
industries. In order to ensure that the highway commercial lands are developed as an
attractive entrance to the community, the following site development standards are
specified in the Wiarton Community Plan which regulates new highway commercial
development proposals.
i) landscaping shall be provided between any Highway Commercial and Industrial use or
parking areas and the adjacent highway, except for designated entrances and exits;
Comprehensive Review of Land Use
Designations in Wiarton 34

i) all outdoor storage for uses other than automotive and recreational vehicle dealerships
should be located to the rear or side of the main building on the lot and shall be fenced
or suitably screened from adjacent uses;
ii) signs shall be limited in number and designed to be functional and avoid visual clutter
and distraction, and where possible should be consolidated on shared sign structures;
iii) underground wiring for hydro, telephone, and other transmission lines shall be promoted;
and,
iv) vehicular parking for employees shall be restricted to the side or rear of the principal
building and screened from surrounding uses and views from the street.
It is also a policy of the official plan to prohibit strip development in order to allow for
safe and efficient vehicular movement. Highway commercial and industrial uses should
be grouped together for access and servicing efficiencies. Options such as combining
entrances or service roads are promoted which will reduce access points onto Highway
#6. A prime focus of the development standards is to provide a more attractive
streetscape for the southern entrance to the community. The development standards
could be strengthened by prohibiting parking and storage areas in front of buildings by
means of a zoning By-law modification. As well, signage should be limited to fascia and
ground signage or prohibiting free standing signage.

8.0 GROWTH ALLOCATION OPTIONS

8.1 Accommodating Projected Residential Growth

Based on historic growth observations, it is forecast that the Town of Wiarton will need
approximately 629 new dwelling units to accommodate projected population growth to
2029. Assumed density provisions specified in the local Official Plan translate this to a
total anticipated residential land demand of 39.4 hectares. There are a total of 23.9
hectares of vacant residential land available for development within the Town. Of which,
6.4 hectares consist of existing vacant residential parcels suited for infill development
and 8.5 hectares consisting of larger parcels suitable for subdivision developments.

The comparison of projected residential growth against existing land supply is based on
an assumption that all new residential dwellings will be constructed on existing vacant
lots prior to future developments requiring additional lot creation. In review of the long-
term residential land requirements, an additional 30.8 hectares are required beyond
what is presently available for future subdivision developments. Based on this long term
residential land deficit, coupled with the assumptions applied to the projection
formulation, it would be appropriate to consider alternative residential land use
designations for those employment lands within the Wiarton South Study Area.

As noted earlier in this report, a proposal has been submitted for a 1200 to 1500 unit
adult lifestyle community within the Wiarton South Study Area. It is anticipated that
these units will be phased over a 15 to 20 year period. It may be difficult to comprehend
the need for additional residential land to support a proposal for 1200 to 1500 additional
Comprehensive Review of Land Use
Designations in Wiarton 35

dwelling units in light of the foregoing residential land supply versus demand review.
However, one must consider that a large-scale development of this nature may spawn
its own form of "induced population demand" in which the development itself serves as
an attractive destination for new residents from outside the region in a manner which
would defy historic development trends. As noted in the foregoing section 5.1 of this
report, it is difficult to model this type of induced growth which defies historical growth
trends.

If growth is to be sustained for this area over the long-term, the Town must ensure a
policy framework is in place which implements those provincial interests prescribed by
the Planning Act and enforced through the Provincial Policy Statement. This means a
move away from traditional housing developments and implementing a policy
environment that supports and encourages more compact built form, mixed-use
developments, higher density building formats and increased useability of surface
landscapes. The proponent for the adult lifestyle community has suggested the
development will include some commercial uses that intend to serve those needs
specific to the adult lifestyle community. These uses will be included within a proposed
village centre and would consist of home care, mobility services, health and fitness,
leisure, convenience retail, and institutional facilities.

The proposed village centre presents an opportunity to implement those provincial
directions including mixed-uses and higher density development options. As mobility
and accessibility are prevalent issues amongst ageing demographic groups,
consideration should be given to a built form which promotes the ease of mobility at the
pedestrian level as well as alternative transportation formats. Various housing formats
should also be available and the adult lifestyle community provides an opportunity to
fulfill this provincial mandate. The majority of the existing housing stock for the
municipality is the single-detached dwelling which accounts for 90% of all dwelling units.
The Provincial Policy Statement encourages planning authorities to provide for a range
and variety of housing options for existing and future residents and the adult lifestyle
community should be development in a manner which provides greater housing variety.

8.2 Accommodating Projected Employment

The Town of Wiarton has 137.7 hectares of vacant commercial and industrial land
available to accommodate future employment uses. The majority of this land is situated
within the Wiarton South Study Area. It is estimated that a total of only 12.5 hectares of
land will be required to accommodate projected employment activity through the 2029
planning period. This indicates that a substantial surplus of 125.1 hectares of vacant
land is presently designated for employment uses. Consideration of other designations
is appropriate given this abundant surplus anticipated for the planning period, coupled
with the recent residential development interests expressed for these lands.

The Province recognizes the importance of providing a sufficient employment land base
as a prerequisite to a viable local economy and requires that any proposal to re-
designate employment lands to other uses necessitates a comprehensive review. One
Comprehensive Review of Land Use
Designations in Wiarton 36

of the fundamental issues facing the Town of South Bruce Peninsula, along with many
localities in this region is the declining workforce due to an ageing population and small
in-migration of working-aged people. Local businesses therefore experience ongoing
difficulties associated with recruiting new employees and there is little incentive
available for new business to locate to or start up within communities such as Wiarton.

Of primary concern to the Town is the declining employment activity and the
corresponding increased emphasis for Wiarton as a retirement community. In this
regard, the Town of South Bruce Peninsula commissioned the completion of an
Economic Development Plan in 2005 to identify a strategy for improving the local
economic conditions in the area. One of the key recommendations is to foster the role of
the municipality as an enabler to economic development, in that, the municipality must
ensure that sufficient land resources, services and facilities are available to spawn
economic growth. The designation of abundant industrial and employment lands within
the south study area of Wiarton may be a municipal response to ensuring adequate
employment lands and services are provided. However, the preceding analysis
indicates that even with the employment growth anticipated for the 2029 planning
period, a significant abundance of the existing vacant employment lands will remain.

A re-designation of a portion of the existing lands designated industrial and highway
commercial within the Wiarton South study area for residential purposes is appropriate.
However, a complete replacement with a residential designation may be excessive in
light of the preceding residential land supply versus demand analysis. It would be logical
to re-designate these lands "residential" in accordance with the initial phasing of the
proposed adult lifestyle community and retain the balance of the lands for "planned
development" purposes.

The servicing assessment contained in Section 6.0 of this report confirms that no
significant upgrades to the water supply, treatment or storage works would be required
to expand water servicing in the Wiarton south study area for future residential
development. An expansion of wastewater servicing in this area however would require
significant improvements, including upgrades to the existing Elm Street/Taylor Street
pumping station as well as a new forcemain and trunk sanitary sewer.

9.0 PRELIMINARY GROWTH STRATEGY

Given the preceding analysis of growth accommodation, existing infrastructure
allocation and Provincial, County and local policy direction, a logical approach to
designating future land uses within the Wiarton south study area emerges.
Approximately 720 additional jobs are expected for the town through the 2029 planning
period which will occupy approximately 12.5 hectares of land. Presently there are 137.7
hectares of vacant employment land within the Town which exceeds the employment
projections by 125 hectares. Given this excessive oversupply, a proposal to re-
designate these lands for other uses, primarily residential, is justified.
Comprehensive Review of Land Use
Designations in Wiarton 37

However, the residential land assessment indicates that there is presently 23.9 hectares
of vacant residential land available for future development. The majority of this however
is only available in the form of existing vacant lots of record suitable for infill and
intensification forms of new residential development. The existing long-term supply for
residential lands being those lands available which are suitable for larger subdivision
developments consists of 8.5 hectares.

Additional residential land designation in the Wiarton south area is desirable in light of
the apparent oversupply of employment lands and recent development interest for
additional residential lands. An over-supply of residential lands is beneficial for long-
term planning purposes as it provides for:

- Greater than anticipated household growth;
- Land price competitiveness;
- Property ownership limitations;
- Choice of locations; and
- Equity of growth distribution.

The following land use designations and policy modifications should be considered by
the municipality and generally considers the addition of a "Special Polciy Area" to the
existing Wiarton Community Plan. This Special Policy Area specifically applies to those
lands subject to the Adult Lifestyle Community proposal and outlines the criteria that
should be met by the proponent in ensuring development persists in a progressive and
orderly manner. Draft policy to be considered is provided below with land use
designation modifications for the south study area being provided in Appendix 6 to this
document.
Comprehensive Review of Land Use
Designations in Wiarton 38

10.0 POLICY RECOMMENDATION

TOWN OF SOUTH BRUCE PENINSULA OFFICIAL PLAN

SECTION 11.0 WIARTON COMMUNITY PLAN
11.3 LAND USE POLICIES
11.3.9 SPECIAL POLICY AREA #2
WIARTON SOUTH POLICY AREA

11.3.9.1 WIARTON SOUTH SPECIAL POLICY AREA

1.1 PREAMBLE

The following special policy area provides direction for the development of
lands identified within the Wiarton South Settlement Area. A preliminary
concept proposal has been submitted for the development of an "Adult
Lifestyle Community" for these lands. It is intended that a mixed use
residential-commercial and open space community shall be developed
which fosters a mature adult living environment.

1.2 STUDY AREA

The "Wiarton South Special Policy Area" concerns approximately 95
hectares (235 hectares) identified on Schedule `B' to this plan. These
lands are specifically referenced as Part Lots 1,2 and 3, Concession 21 in
the former Town of Wiarton, now part of the Town of South Bruce
Peninsula.

1.3 BACKGROUND

A general concept proposal has been submitted for the development of an
"Adult Lifestyle Community" for the subject lands. In review of this
concept, Council has commissioned the completion of a Growth
Management Report for the Wiarton South Settlement Area being a
comprehensive review of land use designations in the Wiarton south area
in the spring of 2009. The report estimates a population increase ranging
from 1,428 to 2,295 additional permanent residents for the 2009 to 2029
planning period. The residential and employment land analysis provided in
this report has demonstrated sufficient merit in re-designating pre-existing
employment lands for residential purposes in support of the "Adult
Lifestyle Community" Proposal. This special policy area results from the
intent of Council to set out the objectives, development criteria and
Comprehensive Review of Land Use
Designations in Wiarton 39

policies regarding orderly progression of growth and development within
this special policy area.

1.4 GROWTH MANAGEMENT STRATEGY

A staged growth management policy framework is necessary to direct
future development interests within the Wiarton South Policy Area. The
lands subject to the Special Policy Area are to be zoned "Planned
Development" (PD). Prior to any rezoning approval for these lands,
Council shall be satisfied that the following requirements are fulfilled by
the proponent:

a) A Growth Strategy shall be provided by the proponent outlining
development staging details, including annual population and dwelling unit
growth anticipated for each development phase as well as a
comprehensive servicing and storm water management agreement.
Development phasing shall coincide with Municipal growth expectations.

b) A detailed development concept plan shall be provided. The concept plan
shall consist of the following:

i. Areas identified for the following land use purposes:
o Residential
o Open Space
o Village Centre (Commercial and Institutional)
o Environmental Protection

ii. Land use patterns, residential densities and building forms that
efficiently utilize resources, energy and infrastructure.

iii. The development of a parkland system that is convenient and
accessible to community residents.

iv. An integrated trail system that enhances public access to significant
environmental areas as well as active and passive recreation
areas.

v. A range of residential uses including ground-oriented residential
uses.

vi. Public meeting place in the form of a plaza or village centre which
is centrally located within the community.

vii. On-site stormwater management facilities and a general
stormwater management system which is integrated with the open
space system.
Comprehensive Review of Land Use
Designations in Wiarton

APPENDIX 1

VACANT LAND SUMMARY MAP
W ST
VIE
BAY
JENNY ST

DANIEL ST

DI

MCNAUGHTON ST
VI
SI
ON
WATSON ST

ST

DIVISION ST
BOYD ST

WILLIAM ST
41T-93001
JOHN ST

17 SINGLE DETACHED RESIDENCES
LOUISA ST

DRAFT APPROVED
DAWSON ST

BR OWN ST
GEORGE ST
CLAUDE ST

TYSON ST
WATSON ST

TAYLOR ST
FRANK ST

MARY ST
41T-91011

ISAAC ST
46 SINGLE DETACHED RESIDENCES
DRAFT APPROVED

ELM ST
GOULD ST

ELM RD

AMES ST

PROPOSED ADULT LIFESTYLE COMMUNITY
PROPERTY

95.795 Hectares
(236.71 Acres)

LEGEND
BERFORD ST

ADULT LIFESTYLE COMMUNITY LANDS
STUDY AREA BOUNDARY
WIARTON SETTLEMENT AREA BOUNDARY
WATERCOURSE
BERFORD ST

VACANT RESIDENTIAL - IMMEDIATE SUPPLY
VACANT RESIDENTIAL - SHORT TERM SUPPLY
VACANT RESIDENTIAL - LONG TERM SUPPLY
DRAFT APPROVED PLANS OF SUBDIVISION
VACANT INDUSTRIAL LAND
BOAT LAKE RD VACANT COMMERCIAL LAND

³
MAP 1
VACANT LAND SUMMARY
PERCENT OF
NUMBER OF TOTAL TOTAL
LAND CATEGORY TOTAL VACANT
PARCELS HECTARES ACRES
LAND

TOWN OF WIARTON
VACANT RESIDENTIAL - IMMEDIATE SUPPLY
61 6.402 15.8 5.8%
(Unconstrained, Less than 0.3 Ha)
VACANT RESIDENTIAL - SHORT-TERM SUPPLY

VACANT DEVELOPMENT LANDS
(Less than 0.3 Ha but require further review, draft 81 8.941 22.1 10.9%
approved)
VACANT RESIDENTIAL - LONG-TERM (Greater
3 8.507 21.0 6.4%
than 0.3 Hs, Subdivision potential)
VACANT COMMERCIAL 27 59.637 147.4 46.5%
VACANT INDUSTRIAL 3 78.052 192.9 36.8%

260 130 0 260 520 780 1,040
Meters
Comprehensive Review of Land Use
Designations in Wiarton

APPENDIX 2

UNCOMMITTED RESERVE CAPACITY ANALYSIS
WIARTON WATER TREATMENT AND DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM

Report on Uncommitted Remaining Capacity
Town of South Bruce Peninsula ­ Table 1

Genivar Consultants LP ­ April, 2009
Comprehensive Review of Land Use
Designations in Wiarton

APPENDIX 3

UNCOMMITTED RESERVE CAPACITY EVALUATION
WIARTON SEWAGE SYSTEM

Report on Uncommitted Remaining Capacity
Town of South Bruce Peninsula ­ Table 2

Genivar Consultants LP ­ April, 2009
Comprehensive Review of Land Use
Designations in Wiarton

APPENDIX 4

PRELIMINARY REVIEW SUMMARY
STORMWATER MANAGEMENT STUDY
WIARTON SOUTH PLANNING AREA

Town of South Bruce Peninsula

Genivar Consultants LP ­ May 4, 2009
Comprehensive Review of Land Use
Designations in Wiarton

APPENDIX 5

WIARTON LAND USE SCHEDULE `B'
TOWN OF SOUTH BRUCE PENINSULA OFFICIAL PLAN
Comprehensive Review of Land Use
Designations in Wiarton

APPENDIX 6

PROPOSED LAND USE DESIGNATION MODIFICATIONS
WIARTON SOUTH PLANNING AREA